By Giuseppe MASALA
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Analyzing the combined effect emerging from the four activities listed above undertaken by Europe (drone-ization, militarization, privateer war in the Baltic, and nuclearization), it is clear that conflict between Russia and Europe must be considered inevitable.
In ten weeks they trained us for military life, and in that period they transformed us profoundly than ten years of school. We learned that a shiny button is important than four volumes of Schopenhauer. Stupefied at first, then exasperated, and finally indifferent, we had to recognize that what counts is not so much the spirit as the shine brush, not thought but the system, not freedom but “snapping to attention.”
All Quiet on the Western Front – Erich Maria Remarque
One of the most dangerous phenomena of the piecemeal world war is certainly that whenever one of the “local conflicts” erupts very violently, the mass media, and consequently public opinion, tend to focus their attention on it, neglecting what is happening in other conflicts. A dangerous phenomenon that, on one hand, prevents seeing the phenomenon in its entirety and leads to focusing on a single theater, and above all tends to underestimate the importance of the “exhaustion” phases that occur in one quadrant when, in reality, those are the phases in which the next escalation is being prepared.
With the outbreak of the war in the Persian Gulf, a veil of silence has indeed fallen over the Ukrainian conflict; but it is not wrong to say that this is a silence that prepares for the storm. Indeed, European elites have transformed all of Europe into the rearguard of the Ukrainian front, becoming de facto a direct party to the conflict, as the Russians now openly maintain. The fundamental axes of this evolution of Europe’s status in relation to the conflict, according to this writer, are essentially four:
- Drone-ization (Proliferation of drone warfare);EU countries have become joint-venture producers of drones needed by Ukraine and beyond; often, countries closest to Russian borders effectively grant their airspace to Ukrainian drones heading toward their targets in Russian territory.
- Militarization of the civilian productive fabric.
- Use of privateering methods in the Baltic Seaagainst Russian merchant ships or those coming from Russian ports.
- Nuclearization:probable expansion of the French nuclear umbrella to European countries in a clearly anti-Russian function.
Drone-ization
The phenomenon of drone-ization consists, in fact, of transforming Europe into the productive rearguard for drones needed by Ukraine against Russia. On his latest European tour, Zelensky signed cooperation agreements with countries such as Italy, Germany, France, and Great Britain for the joint production of drones. Further , the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs itself published an exhaustive list of all European companies producing components for Ukrainian drones: in addition to four Italian companies, we have British (Fire Point and Horizon Tech), German (Davinci Avia and Airlogistica), Danish (Kort), Latvian (Terminal Autonomy), Lithuanian (Kort), Dutch (Destinus), Polish (Antonov State Enterprise and Ukrspecsystems), and Czech (DeViRo). An effort that, as is easy to understand, is much than a mere commercial agreement because it allows Kyiv to obtain drones (or parts of them) while shielding production from possible Russian attacks. Unsurprisingly, the Russians speak of possible consequences due to this kind of aid to the Ukrainian war effort for the production of one of the weapon systems that has proven to be among the most innovative and insidious of the entire war. Also note that the European Union has allocated over one billion euros for the development and production of drones in Europe and to build a substantially complete production chain (in which, over, Ukraine itself acts as a true “testing ground” and primary source of practical experience). Looking closely, this is a real industrial policy direction that cannot fail to cause concern because these are choices aimed at equipping European armed forces with such quantities of a weapon system that they are incompatible with normal peacetime use.
Militarization
The reconversion of the civilian productive fabric is certainly underway throughout Europe, particularly in NATO member countries. The most emblematic case of this phenomenon is obviously the German one, which is even transforming its massive automotive sector (which was the country’s production locomotive) into a weapons producer, thus elevating the defense sector to the new base of the German economy.
Even the Wall Street Journal highlighted this industrial policy choice by Berlin, tending to reverse the current decline of the automobile industry into a boom in the defense industry: “Across German industry, production lines that once guaranteed the country’s export miracle are being converted into mechanisms for Europe’s rearmament,” observes the WSJ.
Certainly, an emblematic case of this transformation of the German industrial sector is that of Schaeffler, one of the fundamental suppliers for automobiles (from engines to bearings), which now produces drone engines, onboard systems for ar d vehicles, and components for military aviation. Another striking case is certainly that of Volkswagen, which is negotiating with Israeli companies to begin production of components for the Israeli Iron Dome system by 2027. generally, several companies have added a third shift for the production of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. Almost 90% of European venture capital invested in the defense sector goes to German companies.
As can be seen, we are facing an imposing, difficult, certainly costly transformation that cannot be done with short-term prospects: Berlin intends to produce weapons massively for a long period of time. A choice that can only be conceivable with the conviction that the confrontation with Moscow is inevitable: and one can only hope that it is a “cold” confrontation like that of the second half of the last century and not a “hot” one like that of the first half of the last century.
Privateer Warfare in the Baltic
One of the most serious cases of militarization of the European posture is certainly the effective blockade of the Baltic Sea against tankers carrying Russian oil and coming from the Russian region of Leningrad, which overlooks the Baltic Sea. There are now countless cases of boarding and seizure of tankers that European authorities call the “Russian shadow fleet.” The initial period in which this phenomenon was observed could have been considered extemporaneous and perhaps – to be generous – attributable to excessive zeal by the authorities of the coastal European countries, but now it can only be considered as a new privateer war by Europeans against Russian ships, tending to block Russian use of the Baltic. Needless to say, international law (which Europeans talk about so much) considers this type of behavior an act of war. War against Russia, which has now increasingly shifted towards the sea: first the continuous attacks on Russian tankers in the Black Sea and now the privateer war in the Baltic, not forgetting the sporadic (but very serious) attacks on Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea.
The Nuclearization of Europe
The certainly most worrying phenomenon in this very serious context of latent war against Russia is certainly that related to European military alliances. The first step was certainly the signing of the 2019 Treaty of Aachen between France and Germany, which also provides for enhanced military cooperation between the two countries. Another step towards the establishment of a European alliance was certainly the Treaty of Nancy between France and Poland, which provides, in addition to mutual assistance in the event of attack, also close nuclear cooperation. Of primary importance was then the “Northwood Declaration” between the UK and France (July 2025), which for the first time provides for the coordination of both nuclear forces belonging to these countries. Slowly but inexorably, a network of treaties is being born between European countries that has France (but also Great Britain) at its center and which is leading to the extension of the French and British military and nuclear umbrella to all of Europe. As proof of what I am stating, it must be remembered that in October 2024, the defense ministers of Germany and the United Kingdom agreed on German-British military cooperation within the framework of the “Trinity House Agreement,” which also includes nuclear issues. Berlin and Paris have also agreed to conduct a Franco-German nuclear dialogue. The so-called “Steering Group” is called upon to conduct regular exchanges of views on all issues relating to nuclear energy and to develop possibilities for cooperation.
Further , additional possible agreements are in the offing these days. On April 20 in Gdansk, the French president and the Polish prime minister publicly announced that France has invited Poland to join the European group of the “advanced deterrence” framework, which also includes Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Sweden, and which provides for strong cooperation, including in the military nuclear field, with France. Note that the Polish prime minister remained deliberately ambiguous about the possibility that, within the framework of this cooperation, Poland could host French Rafale aircraft equipped with nuclear weapons. It is clear that all this diplomatic-military activity is to be considered aimed against Russia given the existing conflictual framework between Moscow and European countries. Note, over, how Europe is entering a phase in which security is no longer guaranteed by America and therefore, as noted by Ethan B. Kapstein of the American RAND Corporation and Jonathan Coverley of the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) on Foreign Affairs, the old continent is forced to rapidly restructure its defense model.
One final note should be made regarding the draft law presented by the Finnish government to the parliament in Helsinki which authorizes the deployment of nuclear weapons on national territory. A proposal that can only be described as chilling, both because of the very long border between Russia and Finland and because of its proximity to Murmansk (the Arctic city where the Russian Northern Fleet is based) and above all to St. Petersburg, the second largest Russian city located less than 200 km from the Finnish border.
Conclusions
Analyzing the combined effect emerging from the four activities listed above undertaken by Europe (drone-ization, militarization, privateer war in the Baltic, and nuclearization), it is clear that conflict between Russia and Europe must be considered inevitable. We have probably passed the point beyond which direct conflict is reached by inertia, making any retreat extremely difficult if not impossible.
Original article: lantidiplomatico.it
