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Many French people subscribe to the core ideas of Trumpism, a study reveals. The right wing—more so than the far right—could reap the benefits.

Through his handling of the war in Ukraine and his approach to transatlantic trade relations, Donald Trump has made new enemies in Europe since the start of his new term. But could Trumpism itself take root within the European Union?

The Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (Cevipof) in Paris and the Guido Carli Free International University of Social Studies (Luiss) in Rome tested key tenets of the new U.S. administration’s political agenda on samples of citizens in France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands between mid-January and early February, as part of the 16th wave of the Political Confidence Barometer. The study examined distrust of political elites, disillusionment with democracy, demands for stronger authority, skepticism toward the justice system, support for economic liberalism, and resistance to government interference in private life. The poll results suggest that Europe has fertile ground for Trumpism to grow.

A Crisis of Democracy

According to Luc Rouban, a CNRS research director and member of Cevipof who authored the report “French Trumpism” (1), France is the most receptive to Trumpist ideas among the four countries studied.

“France shows the strongest convergence with these ideas. Of course, there are differences between France and the U.S., notably because the latter is a federal country. But notions of sovereignty, national assertiveness, and a strong state have always been widespread in France, even on the left. We shouldn’t forget that,” Rouban explains.

Three key markers of Trumpism—distrust in the justice system, a fraught relationship with political elites, and a crisis of democratic efficiency—reveal this French affinity with American voters’ concerns.

“The belief that democracy isn’t working well and that less democracy but more efficiency would be better truly sets France apart from Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands,” Rouban notes. He attributes this partly to the current political instability following Macron’s dissolution of parliament, the legislative elections, and the difficulties in forming a government. But it’s also a long-standing trend.

“France has been in this situation for years. Remember the Yellow Vests’ rhetoric: ‘I played by the rules, did everything I was asked to do, and yet I’m still struggling.’ Many citizens feel either indifference or ineptitude in addressing their problems.”

Distrust in the judiciary is another distinctly French trait: only 44% trust the justice system (the same as in Italy), compared to 63% in the Netherlands and 66% in Germany. France also has the highest proportion of respondents who find the justice system “too lenient” (69%), “biased” (77%), and “politicized” (69%). The recent conviction of Marine Le Pen for embezzlement of public funds—and its political exploitation—will likely reinforce this sentiment.

Support for Public Services

On the other hand, the French, Germans, Italians, and Dutch express strong trust in their healthcare systems, police, and military (between 64% and 80%). Overall, satisfaction with public services in Europe sets it apart from the U.S.

“Some aspects of Trumpism are unique to the U.S. and other countries like Brazil under Bolsonaro or Argentina under Milei,” says Benjamin Biard, a researcher at the Centre for Sociopolitical Research and Information (Crisp). “They combine far-right messaging with neoliberal or even libertarian policies aimed at gutting the state. In Europe, far-right parties don’t prioritize dismantling public services. Some, like France’s National Rally and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, even adopt social rhetoric to broaden their appeal.”

Given Europeans’ attachment to public services, it’s harder for Trumpism’s “natural heirs” to replicate the same policies. Yet, the number of respondents who believe “the number of civil servants should be reduced”—a hallmark of Trump’s agenda—has never been higher in the four countries surveyed (53% since 2017).

The Far Right Isn’t the Only Vessel

While far-right movements—which Trump, Vice President Vance, and advisor Musk have openly supported—seem like natural vehicles for Trumpism in Europe, they may not be the only ones.

“Trump’s return to the White House has undeniably fascinated much of the French right and far right, proving that a radical, authoritarian right can take power in a flagship Western democracy,” says Rouban. But Trumpist ideas are spreading beyond the far right, influencing Les Républicains, parts of Macron’s camp, and even the left.

“The reception of Trumpism in France could significantly reshape the right. It might not benefit the National Rally, which may not be best positioned to deliver the liberalism and social mobility Trumpism advocates. The real winner could be Les Républicains.”

A Clash of Nationalisms

Within the far right, support for Trumpism varies depending on ideological leanings. In the European Parliament, the movement is split across at least three political groups. Currently, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (Fratelli d’Italia) best embodies the convergence between Europe’s far right and Trump’s administration.

“But she’s in an awkward position,” Biard notes. “She has close ties to Trump, yet his trade policies are harmful to the EU—including Italy. That’s the paradox of such alliances.”

It’s also the paradox of nationalist parties clashing with like-minded movements in other countries. Optimists may take comfort in seeing them fight among themselves. But as Rouban warns, the underlying reality remains troubling: many European voters now share the same grievances that propelled Trump to victory in November 2024.

(1) “French Trumpism,” by Luc Rouban, Political Confidence Barometer, Sciences Po Cevipof, March 2025.

Originally published by Le vif