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The previous announcement by Trump which threatened Iran if it didn’t comply with his latest terms for a peaceful solution to the Iran war was to be expected. In fact, you could say it is part of a pattern, but to really understand it, you have to understand what is at the core of Donald Trump and the decisions he makes: market manipulation.

The previous threat to the last one, which was to announce a five-day pause to attacking certain installations, resulted in a small group of investors making almost 200 million dollars. The most recent threat – we don’t know yet what amount was made by Trump’s friends on Wall Street – but given that the price fell from almost $120 to a tad below $100 on the first day, we can assume huge amounts of money are being made.

We are living in a new age, a time where U.S. presidents can be driven and manipulated like never before by their cronies in the stock market, and it is now common knowledge that Trump is guilty of that. It used to be unethical and entirely unacceptable for any U.S. president to behave like this, but Trump has brought new standards to the Oval Office. The scum mark on the side of the bath has reached a new low point in terms of ethics while in office. And it’s Trump’s legacy.

The most recent threat was not to be taken seriously by Iran as it was all about making money and buying time. Troops and equipment are arriving each day in the region, though, there can be no doubt about that. And Thunderbolt A-10 planes, often called ‘Warthogs’, are also arriving, which military figures know are only used in one role: to attack infantry on the ground with rapid-fire cannon while our own military advances.

Something big seems to be in the pipeline, and if Trump warns us that in “two or three weeks” it is coming, can we assume he’s incredibly stupid to announce it, or can we assume that it’s coming in two or three days? Or even, can we assume that it’s not coming at all?

It should not come as a great shock to us if the entire military contingent arrives in the region and the oil price hits $150 USD before Trump makes an announcement calling the whole thing off. Easily, that could be several hundreds of millions of dollars made there, perhaps even a billion, just from that market manipulation. Nothing is off limits.

But what are the lessons? Analysts always look for trends which cross boundaries and from which we can draw wisdom. Trump’s foreign policy incursions, or as he often calls them “excursions”, hit the U.S. economy badly at home, as the turmoil created by the Iran war alone is affecting global trade not just in oil but in other essential commodities.

Human rights is another one. Under Trump 2.0, in just a matter of 16 months in office, human rights abuse around the world has worsened, as Global South countries are waking up to the sham of human rights opprobrium and how the U.S. uses it as a weapon against regimes it doesn’t like, or as a gift to those it does. In Palestine, just a few days ago, the Israeli parliament voted that Palestinian people can be hanged for murder or “lethal attacks” against Israelis, but of course this new law doesn’t apply the other way around. Already human rights organisations are worried that Palestinians in jail will be hanged with no trial or due diligence whatsoever. Trump bankrolled the Gaza genocide and is now protecting Bibi from prosecution, so what did we expect?

The trend in Israel is now: do whatever it takes – literally – to keep Netanyahu in power and evading prosecution. Think of the similarity with Trump if he loses both houses. The alikeness is as chilling as it is prolific. Netanyahu quickly saw that the Iran war cannot be sustained and that Trump does not have the stomach for a war of attrition with Iran, so he panicked. His move was to send troops into Lebanon to occupy the south. Anyone who understands the history of Hezbollah in the south and Israel will tell you this only achieves one certain outcome: a forever war with Hezbollah both inside Lebanon but, as we are seeing recently, on Israel’s turf as the Shiite proxy of Iran notches up a number of successful strikes on Israeli tanks. The move to go into Lebanon was all about the security of Netanyahu staying in office, as now that Iran is making billions out of high oil prices, they can push some of that money towards Hezbollah and keep a state of emergency going or less forever. Netanyahu was smart and saw this before anyone else.

The murder of journalists and social media commentators. This is a trend which is only going to increase under Trump and is only a matter of time before it happens on home soil. Much hue and cry has been made about the three Lebanese journalists targeted by the IDF, with one of them being smeared with the Hezbollah association, and so this trend of governments condoning such murders in the media has its roots now established. It was not so well reported that a French journalist, Marine Vlahovic, was recently murdered in her home in Marseille before she embarked on a controversial documentary about Gaza. Just recently it has been established that the bullet which killed Charlie Kirk did not come from the so-called assassin’s rifle.

And of course the other trends in the U.S. are high inflation (driven by oil prices), off-the-scale corruption and insider trading, and soon to come, demonstrations. Trump knows massive demos are being planned by those who want to voice their concerns ahead of the midterms in November, as they see most consumer goods rising in prices, following the knock-on effect of the Gulf crisis. This is all linked to America’s alliances around the world being in tatters, as the U.S. is no longer seen as the global force for good. And all the while Iran, Russia and China develop their economies as Americans scratch their heads and wonder how they are floundering, while America looks less and less like any kind of democracy each day.